Heroin Trafficking Along the Northern and Southern Routes: Emerging Trends and Strategic Implications

This paper examines how heroin trafficking routes from Afghanistan into Europe have evolved following the Taliban's return to power in 2021. It explores the changing dynamics of the northern and southern trafficking routes, highlighting how geopolitical developments, shifts in enforcement, and changing trafficking methods have increased the importance of alternative pathways, particularly through the Caucasus.

The paper also describes broader changes in the global drug market. While heroin continues to be supplied through existing stockpiles, adulterated products, and new cultivation, global heroin seizures have declined alongside increasing methamphetamine seizures, reflecting the growing influence of synthetic drugs. The authors argue that understanding these changing trafficking networks is essential for informing policy responses, strengthening supply reduction strategies, and supporting effective law enforcement interventions.